Feasible alternatives to green growth
Feasible alternatives to green growth
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-020-0484-y
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发表时间：
2020-03-09
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Dittmer, Kristofer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D'Alessandro, Simone;Cieplinski, Andre;Dittmer, Kristofer
气候变化和日益严重的收入不平等已成为对当代生活水平、和平与民主的双重威胁。这两个问题通常在施政纲领中分开处理。一种新的激进建议已经提出，以管理公平的低碳转型。本着这种精神，我们开发了一个动态的宏观模拟模型，以调查三种情景的长期影响：绿色增长，社会公平的政策，和去增长。基于技术进步和环境政策的绿色增长情景实现了温室气体排放的大幅减少，但代价是收入不平等和失业率上升。社会公平政策设想方案增加了直接的劳动力市场干预措施，从而产生类似于绿色增长的环境绩效，同时以增加公共赤字为代价改善社会条件。经济衰退情景进一步减少了消费和出口，尽管引入了财富税，但在公共赤字较高的情况下，排放量和不平等程度得到了更大程度的减少。本文通过对三种情景的动态宏观模拟研究发现，新的激进社会政策能够将社会繁荣和低碳排放联合收割机结合起来，在经济和政治上都是可行的。
Climate change and increasing income inequality have emerged as twin threats to contemporary standards of living, peace and democracy. These two problems are usually tackled separately in the policy agenda. A new breed of radical proposals have been advanced to manage a fair low-carbon transition. In this spirit, we develop a dynamic macrosimulation model to investigate the long-term effects of three scenarios: green growth, policies for social equity, and degrowth. The green growth scenario, based on technological progress and environmental policies, achieves a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions at the cost of increasing income inequality and unemployment. The policies for social equity scenario adds direct labour market interventions that result in an environmental performance similar to green growth while improving social conditions at the cost of increasing public deficit. The degrowth scenario further adds a reduction in consumption and exports, and achieves a greater reduction in emissions and inequality with higher public deficit, despite the introduction of a wealth tax. We argue that new radical social policies can combine social prosperity and low-carbon emissions and are economically and politically feasible.A dynamic macrosimulation study of three scenarios finds that policies for social prosperity and low-carbon emissions are economically and politically feasible.