Return Period and Risk of Hydrologic Events. I: Mathematical Formulation
Return Period and Risk of Hydrologic Events. I: Mathematical Formulation
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(2001)6:4(358
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发表时间：
2001-08
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
B. Fernández;J. Salas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Fernández;J. Salas
水文事件重现期的估算以及与水文事件相关的水工建筑物的破坏风险是许多水资源研究的重要方面。对于简单的水文事件，如与独立的年度洪水有关的水文事件，可以很容易地计算出重现期和失效风险。然而，在更复杂的水文事件（如与年流量和干旱相关的水文事件）的情况下，没有一般适用的方法来估计回归期、故障风险和服务可靠性。本文重新审视了通常用于回归期和失效风险的定义，并提出了估计它们的一般程序，该程序可适用于与洪水、干旱、最小流量、含水层水位、水库水位和流出有关的广泛水文事件。本文的第二部分包括数值算例和应用。
The estimation of return periods of hydrological events and the corresponding risks of failure of hydraulic structures that are associated with such events are important aspects in many water resource studies. For simple hydrologic events such as those related to independent annual floods, both the return period and the risk of failure can be readily calculated. However, no general applicable methods are available for the estimation of return periods, risk of failure, and reliability of service in cases of more complex hydrological events such as those related to dependent annual flows and droughts. In this paper, the definitions commonly employed for return period and risk of failure are reexamined and a general procedure for their estimation are presented, which may be applicable to a wide range of hydrological events related to floods, droughts, minimum flows, aquifer levels, and reservoir levels and outflows. Part II of this paper includes numerical examples and applications.