The unusual 2014–2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments
The unusual 2014–2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments
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2014-2016年异常厄尔尼诺事件：动力学、预测与启示
DOI：
10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Fang Xianghui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xie Ruihuang;Fang Xianghui
2014 - 2016年厄尔尼诺事件包括2014/2015年冬季的厄尔尼诺事件和2015年底的极端厄尔尼诺事件。这两个事件都没有在业务预测模型中成功预测。由于这两次厄尔尼诺事件的演变在历史观测中很少发生，因此在这两次厄尔尼诺事件发生时，很少有经验可以用来理解和预测。也由于它们的特殊性，吸引了相当多的注意力，旨在揭示隐藏的机制。本文就近年来的研究进展和认识作一综述。从这些研究中得出的结论是，导致2014年厄尔尼诺现象停滞的关键因素是意外的夏季东风波（EWS）或夏季西风爆发（WWBs）的缺乏。大多数业务预测模型未能再现这种随机风，从而作出不切实际的预测。这两次厄尔尼诺事件再次唤醒了研究界，使他们结合最先进的气候模式来模拟随机风，并研究它们在厄尔尼诺发展中的作用。
The 2014–2016 El Nino events consist of a stalled El Nino event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Nino event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Nino events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Nino in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges(EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts(WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Nino events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Nino.