Neoclassical growth with endogenous age distribution. Poverty vs low-fertility traps as steady states of demographic transitions
Neoclassical growth with endogenous age distribution. Poverty vs low-fertility traps as steady states of demographic transitions
复制标题
具有内生年龄分布的新古典主义增长。
DOI：
10.1007/s00148-012-0446-4
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
P. Manfredi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Fanti;M. Iannelli;P. Manfredi
与其他因素相比，人口年龄分布作为经济增长轨迹的一个关键内在决定因素的作用历来被忽视。这是不现实的，特别是在处理重大的结构变化时期，如人口结构转型时。我们建立了一个模型，结合一个简单的代表性的经济，索洛的新古典增长模型的基础上，人口动态的综合表现。该模型被用来研究在人口转变的存在下，人口和经济的平衡增长状态的结构。分析表明，适当纳入年龄结构丰富的频谱的长期均衡的新古典模型，允许多达五个国家的平衡增长，并显示了“贫困”和“低生育率”陷阱的生育率转变的不同方面的开始。还考虑了生育率、死亡率和储蓄转变的不同时间以及更现实的资本人口统计学的作用。
Compared to other factors, the role of the age distribution of the population as a key endogenous determinant of economic growth trajectories has traditionally been overlooked. This is unrealistic, especially when dealing with major epochs of structural change, such as demographic transitions. We set up a model combining a simple representation of the economy, based on the neoclassical growth model of Solow, with a comprehensive representation of population dynamics. The model is used to investigate the structure of balanced growth states of the population and the economy in the presence of demographic transitions. The analysis shows that proper inclusion of age structure enriches the spectrum of the long-run equilibria of the neoclassical model, allowing up to five states of balanced growth, and shows the onset of “poverty” and “low-fertility” traps as different facets of fertility transitions. The role of different timing of fertility, mortality and savings transitions, and of more realistic demography of capital, is also considered.