Stochastic reservoir simulation for the modeling of uncertainty in coal seam degasification.
Stochastic reservoir simulation for the modeling of uncertainty in coal seam degasification.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.fuel.2015.01.046
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发表时间：
2015-05-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Olea RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Karacan CÖ;Olea RA
煤层脱气通过减少煤层的气体含量以及作为能源产生附加值来提高煤矿安全性。煤层储层模拟是帮助实现这两个主要目标的最有效方法之一。在所有建模和模拟研究中，如何定义储层以及是否可以预测观测到的产量是重要的考虑因素。使用地质统计学实现作为不同煤储层性质的空间图是比假设整个领域的统一性质更现实的方法。事实上，这种方法可以帮助多个井筒的同时历史匹配，以增强与脱气相关的不同煤性质的空间模型的置信度。仍然存在的问题是地质统计学模拟中的不确定性，其源于煤层的部分采样，不能正确反映煤炭属性实现的随机性。随机模拟和使用个人实现，而不是E型，使不确定性的评估成为可能。这项工作是Karacan等人（2014年）在评估地质统计图不确定性方面的进步。在这项工作中，我们将随机生成的10种煤炭属性的100个单独实现批量化，以创建100个捆绑包，并将其用于100个单独的煤层储层模拟，以进行同步历史匹配。然后，我们评估了每个束的历史匹配误差，并定义了一组实现，这将使所有威尔斯的误差最小化。我们进一步比较的错误与E型和最佳匹配的平均实现。与Karacan等人（2014年）使用E型图和分位数图的平均值不同，使用这100个束从单独的模拟中创建了100个不同的历史匹配结果，以及就地气体量的结果分布，例如，可以从中评估煤炭属性实现的不确定性。该研究有助于确定由煤炭性质空间图组成的实现束，从而使误差最小。此外，它表明，E-型和实现的平均，给出了最佳匹配的个别合理地近似相同的属性。此外，确定的实现束表明，研究领域最初有1.515亿立方米（立方米）的气体和104万立方米的水在煤中，对应于整个范围的概率Q90的气体和接近Q75的水。2013年，天然气和水的地下流体量分别减少到1.389亿立方米和99.7万立方米。
Coal seam degasification improves coal mine safety by reducing the gas content of coal seams and also by generating added value as an energy source. Coal seam reservoir simulation is one of the most effective ways to help with these two main objectives. As in all modeling and simulation studies, how the reservoir is defined and whether observed productions can be predicted are important considerations. Using geostatistical realizations as spatial maps of different coal reservoir properties is a more realistic approach than assuming uniform properties across the field. In fact, this approach can help with simultaneous history matching of multiple wellbores to enhance the confidence in spatial models of different coal properties that are pertinent to degasification. The problem that still remains is the uncertainty in geostatistical simulations originating from the partial sampling of the seam that does not properly reflect the stochastic nature of coal property realizations. Stochastic simulations and using individual realizations, rather than E-type, make evaluation of uncertainty possible. This work is an advancement over Karacan et al. (2014) in the sense of assessing uncertainty that stems from geostatistical maps. In this work, we batched 100 individual realizations of 10 coal properties that were randomly generated to create 100 bundles and used them in 100 separate coal seam reservoir simulations for simultaneous history matching. We then evaluated the history matching errors for each bundle and defined the single set of realizations that would minimize the error for all wells. We further compared the errors with those of E-type and the average realization of the best matches. Unlike in Karacan et al. (2014), which used E-type maps and average of quantile maps, using these 100 bundles created 100 different history match results from separate simulations, and distributions of results for in-place gas quantity, for example, from which uncertainty in coal property realizations could be evaluated. The study helped to determine the realization bundle that consisted of the spatial maps of coal properties, which resulted in minimum error. In addition, it was shown that both E-type and the average of realizations that gave the best match for invidual approximated the same properties resonably. Moreover, the determined realization bundle showed that the study field initially had 151.5 million m3 (cubic meter) of gas and 1.04 million m3 water in the coal, corresponding to Q90 of the entire range of probability for gas and close to Q75 for water. In 2013, in-place fluid amounts decreased to 138.9 million m3 and 0.997 million m3 for gas and water, respectively.
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影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Karacan, C. Ozgen;Drobniak, Agnieszka;Mastalerz, Maria
通讯作者：
Mastalerz, Maria
影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Karacan, C. Oezgen
通讯作者：
Karacan, C. Oezgen
影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Karacan, C. Oezgen;Olea, Ricardo A.;Goodman, Gerrit
通讯作者：
Goodman, Gerrit
DOI：
10.1016/j.jngse.2012.10.005
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
Karacan, C. Oezgen
通讯作者：
Karacan, C. Oezgen
影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Strapoc, Dariusz;Mastalerz, Maria;Hedges, Sheila
通讯作者：
Hedges, Sheila