Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Britain using Bayesian methods
Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Britain using Bayesian methods
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DOI：
10.1038/sj.bjc.6605781
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发表时间：
2010-07-27
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Hodgson, J. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tan, E.;Warren, N.;Hodgson, J. T.
背景：在英国，间皮瘤死亡率在过去40年中增加了10倍以上，2006年英国间皮瘤登记中记录了41700例男性死亡。每年死于间皮瘤的人数占所有癌症死亡人数的1%。基于Hodgson等人以前的工作建立了泊松回归模型，该模型允许对模型参数和对未来间皮瘤死亡率的预测做出知情的统计推断。方法：在泊松回归模型中，个人间皮瘤的风险取决于给定年份个人的平均集体石棉剂量和特定年龄的暴露潜力。利用Metropolis-Hastings算法和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗技术，将模型与贝叶斯框架内的数据进行了拟合，为模型参数提供了可靠的区间，并为未来死亡病例的数量提供了预测区间。结果：男性最有可能在30岁至49岁之间接触石棉，接触石棉的高峰年估计为1963年。背景病例数估计为每百万人口1.08例。结论：男性死亡率预计在2016年达到峰值，约2040例死亡，此后迅速下降。预计从1968年至2050年将发生约91000例死亡，其中约61000例发生在2007年以后。《英国癌症杂志》(2010)103,430-436。DOI：10.1038/sj.bjc.6605781在线发布2010年7月13日(C)2010年英国癌症研究
BACKGROUND: Mesothelioma mortality has increased more than ten-fold over the past 40 years in Great Britain, with 41700 male deaths recorded in the British mesothelioma register in 2006. Annual mesothelioma deaths now account for >1% of all cancer deaths. A Poisson regression model based on a previous work by Hodgson et al has been fitted, which has allowed informed statistical inferences about model parameters and predictions of future mesothelioma mortality to be made.METHODS: In the Poisson regression model, the mesothelioma risk of an individual depends on the average collective asbestos dose for the individual in a given year and an age-specific exposure potential. The model has been fitted to the data within a Bayesian framework using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, providing credible intervals for model parameters as well as prediction intervals for the number of future cases of mortality.RESULTS: Males were most likely to have been exposed to asbestos between the ages of 30 and 49 years, with the peak year of asbestos exposure estimated to be 1963. The estimated number of background cases was 1.08 cases per million population.CONCLUSION: Mortality among males is predicted to peak at approximately 2040 deaths in the year 2016, with a rapid decline thereafter. Approximately 91 000 deaths are predicted to occur from 1968 to 2050 with around 61 000 of these occurring from 2007 onwards. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 103, 430-436. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605781 www.bjcancer.com Published online 13 July 2010 (C) 2010 Cancer Research UK