The urban future of Vietnam.
The urban future of Vietnam.
复制标题
越南城市的未来。
DOI：
10.3828/twpr.17.3.9687x49552495446
复制
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Mcgee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Mcgee
1990年，越南是东南亚人口第二多的国家。到2010年，人口预计将增加到9840万(全国)和1620万(城市)。联合国的预测显示，城市人口将增加到3380万。作者基于他在亚洲进行了40年的城市化研究，认为联合国的估计更有可能。最有可能的经济发展模式将遵循韩国、台湾和泰国的模式。这种模式包括快速发展混合经济，大量私营部门向外国投资开放，以及制造业出口的强劲增长。大部分工业和城市发展可能集中在河内的两个扩展的大都市区--海防和胡志明。这两个人口稠密地区的发展可能会给城市政策制定者带来挑战。城市地区被定义为具有明确的城市人口集中、城市人口的自然增长和迁移、从事非农业职业的人数增加和城市生活方式的地区。本文参考了1970年至1989年期间越南人对城市场所的定义。从历史上看，城市政策在五个时期发生了变化：殖民前时期；法国殖民时期(1858-1945年)，城市和城镇发展了更大的行政、商业和制造职能；1954-75年为统一而奋斗；1976-86年重建；以及1986年后经济改革时期。自殖民以来，它们的空间分布格局几乎没有变化。对影响当前城镇化的因素进行了识别和讨论。越南规划者最近提出了三个主要发展中心和两个次级发展中心，这两个中心由公路、铁路和河流相连。作者提出了六点建议，以避免城市增长和发展的潜在问题。
Vietnam was the second most populous country in Southeast Asia in 1990. Population is expected to increase to 98.4 million (country-wide) and 16.2 million (urban) by 2010. UN projections indicate a rise of urban population to 33.8 million. The author based on his 40 years of urbanization research in Asia considers the UN estimates more likely. The most likely economic development pattern will follow the South Korean Taiwanese and Thailand model. This model includes rapid development of a mixed economy with a large private sector open to foreign investment and a strong increase in manufactured exports. Most of the industrial and urban development are likely to be concentrated in the two Extended Metropolitan Regions of Hanoi-Haiphong and Ho Chi Minh. Development in these two densely populated regions is likely to create challenges for urban policymakers. Urban areas are defined as those with a defined urban concentration of population the natural and migration increase of urban population an increase in people engaged in nonagricultural occupations and an urban life style. This paper refers to Vietnamese definitions of urban places for the period 1970-89. Historically urban policies changed during five periods: the pre-colonial period; the French colonial period (1858-1945) with greater administrative commercial and manufacturing functions developed in cities and towns; the struggle for reunification during 1954-75; reconstruction during 1976-86; and the post-1986 economic reform period. Spatial distribution patterns have varied little since colonization. The factors influencing present urbanization are identified and discussed. Vietnamese planners recently proposed three main centers for development and two centers for secondary development that are linked by roads railways and rivers. The author makes six recommendations for avoiding the potential problems of urban growth and development.