Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions
Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.05.051
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Phillips, Sharon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Litao;Jang, Carey;Phillips, Sharon
根据中国政府制定的国家环境保护“十一五”规划（FYP, 2006-2010），二氧化硫（SO2）控制的总体目标是实现2010年全国二氧化硫排放总量比2005年降低10%。类似的氮氧化物（NOx）排放控制计划目前正在制定中，可能在“十二五”（2011-2015）期间实施。本研究采用美国环境保护署（U.S. epa）的社区多尺度空气质量（model -3/CMAQ）模型系统，对中国SO2和NOx排放目标控制所带来的空气质量改善进行了评估。构建并模拟了基准年2005年、2010年“一切照常”（BAU）情景、2010年SO2控制情景和2010年NOx控制情景四种排放情景，以评估国家控制计划带来的空气质量变化。采用第五代NCAR/Penn State中尺度模式（MM5）生成CMAQ模拟的气象场。在本文的第一部分中，根据基本情况下的温度、风速、风向和降水的观测值，对模拟气象的模式性能进行了评估。结果表明，MM5模型对这些气象变量具有较好的综合性能。生成的气象场可用于CMAQ模型。(C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO2 and NOx emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios - the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO2 control scenario, and the 2010 NOx control scenario-were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.