NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN JAPAN
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN JAPAN
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NBER 工作文件系列：日本的财政乘数
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Y. Gorodnichenko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alan J. Auerbach;Y. Gorodnichenko
在本文中，我们采用以往OECD国家的方法（奥尔巴赫和戈罗德尼琴科，2013），估算了日本的政府购买乘数。这种方法允许乘数根据经济状况平稳变化，并使用实时预测数据来清除其可预测成分的政策创新。在1960年至2012年的样本期内，日本的估计数与经合组织先前的估计数以及使用略有不同的方法对美国的估计数相当一致（奥尔巴赫和戈罗德尼琴科，2012年）。然而，仅根据最近的观察结果作出的估计不太稳定，对政府采购在刺激经济活动，特别是在衰退期间的有效性提供的支持也较弱，尽管日本的周期性模式使确定衰退的日期成为一个挑战。Alan J.奥尔巴赫经济系530 Evans Hall，#3880加州大学伯克利分校Berkeley，CA 94720-3880和NBER auerbach@econ.berkeley.edu经济系530 Evans Hall #3880加州大学伯克利分校Berkeley，CA 94720-3880和NBER ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for Japan, following the approach used previously for a panel of OECD countries (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2013). This approach allows multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and uses real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. For a sample period extending from 1960 to 2012, estimates for Japan are quite consistent with those previously estimated for the OECD as well as those estimated using a slightly different methodology for the United States (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2012). However, estimates based only on more recent observations are less stable and provide weaker support for the effectiveness of government purchases at stimulating economic activity, particularly in recession, although cyclical patterns in Japan make the dating of recessions a challenge. Alan J. Auerbach Department of Economics 530 Evans Hall, #3880 University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 and NBER auerbach@econ.berkeley.edu Yuriy Gorodnichenko Department of Economics 530 Evans Hall #3880 University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 and NBER ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu