Quantifying parameter uncertainty in reservoir operation associated with environmental flow management
Quantifying parameter uncertainty in reservoir operation associated with environmental flow management
复制标题
量化与环境流量管理相关的水库运行参数不确定性
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.246
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Yang Zhifeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
He Shan;Yin Xin'an;Yu Chunxue;Xu Zhihao;Yang Zhifeng
水库调度中固有的参数不确定性影响了调度模型的鲁棒性，在以提高水力发电量为重点的常规调度中已被考虑。近年来，随着人们对生态环境保护的日益重视，河流生态系统的保护需要对环境流（e-flow）进行管理，以维持一个接近自然的流态。水库调度中是否存在电子流量管理对水库调度的不确定性有影响，但在水库调度中很少考虑参数的不确定性。在这项研究中，提出了一个框架进行参数的不确定性分析，在水库调度与电子流管理。在水库调度中，既要考虑径流需求，又要考虑发电量，以维持生态环境与人类社会的协调发展。为了比较不同的电子流量管理对水库调度的不确定性的影响，设置了三个电子流量管理方案。应用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）抽样方法的Metropolis-Hastings算法进行参数估计和不确定度量化。最后以澜沧江糯扎渡水电站为例，验证了该框架的有效性。结果表明，参数的不确定性对水库调度模型的鲁棒性影响很大。不同的水流管理方案下的水库调度的比较表明，更详细的水流管理可以有效地减少水库调度的不确定性和维持在河流中的近自然流态。
Parameter uncertainty inherent in reservoir operation affects operation model robustness and has been considered in conventional operation focusing on improving hydropower generation. With more attention paid to ecological environment protection recently, riverine ecosystem protection requires environmental flow (e-flow) management to sustain a near-natural flow regime. Whether there is e-flow management in reservoir operation has an impact on the uncertainty of reservoir operation, but parameter uncertainty was rarely considered in reservoir operation with e-flow management. In this study, a framework is proposed for performing parameter uncertainty analysis in reservoir operation associated with e-flow management. Both e-flow requirements and hydropower generation are considered in reservoir operation to sustain the harmonious development between ecological environment and human society. To compare the effect of different e-flow managements on the uncertainty of reservoir operation, three e-flow management scenarios are set. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach was applied for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. We used this framework in a case study of Nuozhadu hydropower station on the Lancang River in southern China to test its effectiveness. The results demonstrated that parameter uncertainty greatly affects the robustness of reservoir operation model. The comparison of reservoir operation under different e-flow management scenarios shows that more detailed e-flow management can effectively reduce uncertainty in reservoir operation and sustain the near-natural flow regime in a river.