A multi-scale model quantifies the impact of limited movement of the population and mandatory wearing of face masks in containing the COVID-19 epidemic in Morocco
A multi-scale model quantifies the impact of limited movement of the population and mandatory wearing of face masks in containing the COVID-19 epidemic in Morocco
复制标题
DOI：
10.1051/mmnp/2020016
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-14
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Jebrane, Aissam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bouchnita, Anass;Jebrane, Aissam
新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情于二零一九年十二月在中国武汉爆发，对全球公共卫生造成严重威胁。在摩洛哥，2020年3月2日报告了首例COVID-19确诊病例。自那时以来，采用了几种非药物干预措施来减缓疾病的传播。在这项工作中，我们使用之前开发的COVID-19传播动态多尺度模型来量化限制人口流动和戴口罩对摩洛哥疾病传播的影响。在这个模型中，个体被表示为移动、被感染、传播疾病、出现症状、被隔离、死于疾病或免疫的媒介。我们描述的运动的代理商使用的社会力量模型，我们认为这两种模式的直接和间接的传输。我们使用该模型模拟限制人口流动和强制佩戴口罩对COVID-19传播的影响。该模型预测，采取这两项措施将使病例总数减少64%。此外，采取控制措施后，间接传播的相对发生率增加。
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and caused a serious threat to global public health. In Morocco, the first confirmed COVID-19 case was reported on March 2, 2020. Since then, several non-pharmaceutical interventions were used to slow down the spread of the disease. In this work, we use a previously developed multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to quantify the effects of restricting population movement and wearing face masks on disease spread in Morocco. In this model, individuals are represented as agents that move, become infected, transmit the disease, develop symptoms, go into quarantine, die by the disease, or become immunized. We describe the movement of agents using a social force model and we consider both modes of direct and indirect transmission. We use the model to simulate the impact of restricting the movement of the population movement and mandating the wearing of masks on the spread of COVID-19. The model predicts that adopting these two measures would reduce the total number of cases by 64%. Furthermore, the relative incidence of indirect transmission increases when control measures are adopted.