Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds
Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds
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DOI：
10.1038/423605a
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发表时间：
2003-06-05
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Handcock, MS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, JH;Handcock, MS
调查中报告的性伴侣数量分布显示出明显的倾斜，大多数人在过去一年中有一个或没有伴侣，一小部分人有很多。Liljeros及其同事从瑞典的一项调查结果中推断，性接触存在一种“无标度”的人口分布，与偏好依恋模型一致，在这种模型中，“富人更富”，流行病是由极度滥交的个体驱动的。在这里，我们使用更合适的统计工具重新分析了来自瑞典和其他国家的数据。我们的研究结果支持了传统观点，即这些人群中存在流行病阈值，并表明目前减少艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染传播的公共卫生战略不需要从根本上重新调整重点。
Distributions of the number of sexual partners reported in surveys show a pronounced skew, with most people having had one or no partners in the past year and a small fraction having had many,. Liljeros and colleagues infer from the results of a Swedish survey that there is a "scale-free" population distribution of sexual contacts, consistent with a preferential-attachment model,, in which “the rich get richer” and epidemics are driven by extremely promiscuous individuals. Here we reanalyse the data from Sweden and from other countries, using more appropriate statistical tools. Our findings support the conventional wisdom that epidemic thresholds exist in these populations, and indicate that current public-health strategies to reduce the spread of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections do not need to be radically refocused.