From Brokdorf to Fukushima: The long journey to nuclear phase-out
From Brokdorf to Fukushima: The long journey to nuclear phase-out
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DOI：
10.1177/0096340212464357
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发表时间：
2012-11
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
A. Glaser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Glaser
福岛第一核电站事故发生后不久，德国政府就开始准备立法，计划在2022年前关闭该国最后一座核电站。但这并不是一个全新的发展：德国几十年来一直计划放弃核能，要理解其核能逐步淘汰需要仔细研究过去。有几个项目和事件标志着德国反核能运动的开端：其中包括始于1976年的针对布罗克多夫反应堆的大规模抗议，并导致了与警察的内战式对抗，以及20世纪70年代中期围绕卡尔卡尔快中子反应堆的争议。由于这些和随后的发展-包括1986年切尔诺贝利事故-到20世纪90年代，德国政治生活中没有人认真对待新反应堆建设的想法。这种心照不宣的政策共识导致了能源预测和情景，重点是能源效率，减少需求和可再生能源。到福岛事故发生时，这些新的能源优先事项中有许多已经开始实施并显示出效果。在德国，加速用其他能源替代核电可能需要付出代价，但与此同时，德国的逐步淘汰核能可以提供概念验证，证明放弃一项有争议的高风险技术在政治和技术上的可行性。德国的核淘汰，无论成功与否，都很可能成为全球核能的游戏规则改变者。
Shortly after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, Germany’s government started preparing legislation that would close the country’s last nuclear power plant by 2022. But this wasn’t an entirely new development: Germany had been planning to leave nuclear energy behind for decades, and to understand its nuclear phase-out requires a close look at the past. Several projects and events mark the beginnings of the German anti-nuclear power movement: Among them are the huge protests over the Brokdorf reactor, which began in 1976 and led to civil war-like confrontations with police, and the controversy over the Kalkar fast-neutron reactor in the mid-1970s. Because of these and subsequent developments—including the 1986 Chernobyl accident—by the 1990s, no one in German political life seriously entertained the idea of new reactor construction. This tacit policy consensus led to energy forecasts and scenarios that focused on energy efficiency, demand reduction, and renewable energy sources. By the time of the Fukushima accidents, many of these new energy priorities had already begun to be implemented and to show effect. Replacing nuclear power in Germany with other energy sources on an accelerated schedule is likely to come with a price tag, but, at the same time, Germany’s nuclear phase-out could provide a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the political and technical feasibility of abandoning a controversial high-risk technology. Germany’s nuclear phase-out, successful or not, may well become a game changer for nuclear energy worldwide.