Relationships between Bayesian and Confidence Limits for Predictions
Relationships between Bayesian and Confidence Limits for Predictions
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DOI：
10.1111/j.2517-6161.1964.tb00551.x
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发表时间：
1964-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Thatcher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Thatcher
给定随机样本中的成功数量，可以确定在第二个样本中观察到的数量的预测极限，其方式不依赖于关于总体中未知比例的任何假设或推断。发现这种预测的“置信极限”对应于基于两个特定先验分布的贝叶斯解决方案，并且与拉普拉斯继承规则相关。结果提出了一种可能的“预测策略”类型。
Given the number of successes in a random sample, prediction limits can be determined for the number which will be observed in a second sample, in a way which does not depend on any assumption or inference about the unknown proportion in the population. Such “confidence limits” for the prediction are found to correspond to Bayesian solutions based on two particular prior distributions, and are related to Laplace's rule of succession. The results suggest a possible type of “prediction strategy”.