Estimates of influenza-associated hospitalisations in tropical Singapore, 2010-2017: Higher burden estimated in more recent years
Estimates of influenza-associated hospitalisations in tropical Singapore, 2010-2017: Higher burden estimated in more recent years
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/irv.12676
复制
发表时间：
2019-11-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Jian Ming Lee, Vernon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ng, Yixiang;Chua, Lily Ai Vee;Jian Ming Lee, Vernon
我们之前估计新加坡2010-2012年因肺炎和流感（P&I）而住院的流感相关率为29.6/10万人-年，相当于所有P&I住院的11.2%。目的本研究旨在使用2010年至2017年的最新数据更新新加坡对流感相关肺炎和流感（P&I）住院负担的估计。方法我们使用广义加性模型估计与流感相关的P&I住院人数。我们在模型中指定了每周因P&I入院的人数和每周流感阳性率，沿着潜在的混杂因素，如每周呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）阳性率和气象数据。结果在2010-2017年，新加坡所有P&I住院的16.3%估计归因于流感，相当于流感相关P&I住院率为每10万人年50.1例。估计0-4岁儿童（186.8/100 000人年）和≥ 65岁老年人（338.0/100 000人年）的过剩率较高。据估计，2016年和2017年的流感相关住院率较高（分别为每10万人67.9和75.1），当时甲型流感（H3 N2）亚型占主导地位。结论自2010年以来，新加坡的流感负担有所增加。应继续优先为年轻人和老年人接种流感疫苗。
Background We previously estimated Singapore's influenza-associated hospitalisation rate for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) in 2010-2012 to be 29.6 per 100 000 person-years, which corresponds to 11.2% of all P&I hospitalisations. Objectives This study aims to update Singapore's estimates of the influenza-associated pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalisation burden using the latest data from 2010 to 2017. Methods We estimated the number of P&I hospitalisations associated with influenza using generalised additive models. We specified the weekly number of admissions for P&I and the weekly influenza positivity in the models, along with potential confounders such as weekly respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity and meteorological data. Results In 2010-2017, 16.3% of all P&I hospitalisations in Singapore were estimated to be attributed to influenza, corresponding to an excess influenza-associated P&I hospitalisation rate of 50.1 per 100 000 person-years. Higher excess rates were estimated for children aged 0-4 years (186.8 per 100 000 person-years) and elderly aged >= 65 years (338.0 per 100 000 person-years). Higher influenza-associated hospitalisation rates were estimated for 2016 and 2017 (67.9 and 75.1 per 100 000 persons, respectively) years when the influenza A(H3N2) subtype was dominant. Conclusion Influenza burden in Singapore has increased since 2010. Influenza vaccination programmes should continue to be prioritised for the young and the elderly.