The interplay between reservoir storage and operating rules under evolving conditions
The interplay between reservoir storage and operating rules under evolving conditions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125270
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Garcia, Margaret;Ridolfi, Elena;Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
水库蓄水有助于管理水文变化，提高供水的可预测性和生产力。然而，存在不可避免的权衡，高频变化的控制是以牺牲低频变化的鲁棒性为代价的。严格控制可变性可以减少在超过设计阈值的事件期间维持所需的自适应能力的激励。由于预计全球许多供水系统将发生多方面的变化，因此需要更多地了解设计和运营选择在平衡短期控制和长期适应性方面的作用。在这里，我们研究了水库蓄水规模（相对于需求和径流变化）和水库运行规则如何相互作用，以减轻供应和/或需求变化下的短缺风险。为了解决这些问题，我们研究了三个供水系统，面临着不断变化的条件：科罗拉多河在美国西部，墨尔本供水系统在澳大利亚东南部，和西开普省供水系统在南非。此外，我们参数化的水库动态的社会水文模型使用时间序列从上述三个案例研究。然后，我们使用该模型来探索存储和操作规则的影响。我们发现，更大的存储量导致更长的时间之前观察到的短缺，但这段时间并不总是用于适应。此外，我们的建模结果表明，触发撤回减少更快的操作规则往往会增加适应性反应的可能性;该模型的研究结果得到了三个案例研究的支持。虽然有许多因素影响水压力的反应，我们的研究结果表明：i）评估设计和操作的选择一致的重要性，和ii）检查信息显着性的作用，在适应供水系统不断变化的条件。
Reservoir storage helps manage hydrological variability, increasing predictability and productivity of water supply. However, there are inevitable tradeoffs, with control of high frequency variability coming at the expense of robustness to low frequency variability. Tightly controlling variability can reduce incentives to maintain adaptive capacity needed during events that exceed design thresholds. With multiple dimensions of change projected for many water supply systems globally, increased knowledge on the role of design and operational choices in balancing short-term control and long-term adaptability is needed. Here we investigated how the scale of reservoir storage (relative to demands and streamflow variability) and reservoir operating rules interact to mitigate shortage risk under changing supplies and/or demands. To address these questions, we examined three water supply systems that have faced changing conditions: the Colorado River in the Western United States, the Melbourne Water Supply System in Southeastern Australia, and the Western Cape Water Supply System in South Africa. Moreover, we parameterize a sociohydrological model of reservoir dynamics using time series from the three case studies above. We then used the model to explore the impacts of storage and operational rules. We found that larger storage volumes lead to a greater time before the shortage is observed, but that this time is not consistently used for adaptation. Additionally, our modeling results show that operating rules that trigger withdrawal decreases sooner tend to increase the probability of an adaptive response; the findings from this model are bolstered by the three case studies. While there are many factors influencing the response to water stress, our results demonstrate the importance of: i) evaluating design and operational choices in concert, and ii) examining the role of information salience in adapting water supply systems to changing conditions.