Reconciling models and measurements of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise
Reconciling models and measurements of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise
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DOI：
10.1002/lol2.10230
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发表时间：
2022-01-12
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Kirwan, Matthew L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coleman, Daniel J.;Schuerch, Mark;Kirwan, Matthew L.
面对海平面上升（SLR）和沉积物供应减少，潮汐沼泽的生存往往取决于沼泽垂直建造土壤的能力。然而，数值模型通常预测生存率下的SLR远远超过实地测量的垂直吸积。在这里，我们结合联合收割机新的测量，从美国大西洋沿岸的7个沼泽和来自世界各地的70个额外的沼泽的数据来说明，在大陆尺度上，70%的沼泽吸积率的变化可以解释悬浮泥沙浓度（SSC）和春季潮差（TR）。模型和测量之间的明显差异可以解释为不同的反应，在高沼泽和低沼泽，后者的吸积速度更快，对于一个给定的SSC和TR。这些结果有助于弥合模型和测量之间的差距，并加强了沉积物供应是大陆尺度湿地脆弱性的关键决定因素的范例。
Tidal marsh survival in the face of sea level rise (SLR) and declining sediment supply often depends on the ability of marshes to build soil vertically. However, numerical models typically predict survival under rates of SLR that far exceed field-based measurements of vertical accretion. Here, we combine novel measurements from seven U.S. Atlantic Coast marshes and data from 70 additional marshes from around the world to illustrate that-over continental scales-70% of variability in marsh accretion rates can be explained by suspended sediment concentratin (SSC) and spring tidal range (TR). Apparent discrepancies between models and measurements can be explained by differing responses in high marshes and low marshes, the latter of which accretes faster for a given SSC and TR. Together these results help bridge the gap between models and measurements, and reinforce the paradigm that sediment supply is the key determinant of wetland vulnerability at continental scales.