Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food-energy-water nexus
Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food-energy-water nexus
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0418-8
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Harmsen, Mathijs
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Van Vuuren, Detlef P.;Bijl, David L.;Harmsen, Mathijs
这些文献强调了粮食、能源和水的消费和生产与气候变化和生物多样性丧失等环境挑战之间的重要关系。需要新的工具来分析这种联系的未来动态。在这里，我们介绍一组基于模型的情景和关联的Sankey图，这些情景和关联的Sankey图能够分析相关的关系和动态，以及制定应对战略的选项。这些情景表明，如果不采取新的政策，2015-2050年期间，粮食生产和能源发电量可能会进一步增长60%左右，用水量可能会增加20%左右，导致资源进一步退化，环境压力加大。分析了在气候政策、提高农业产量、改变饮食习惯和减少食物浪费等方面的应对战略，以揭示它们如何有助于扭转这些趋势，甚至可能导致未来减少土地使用。
The literature emphasizes the important relationships between the consumption and production of food, energy and water, and environmental challenges such as climate change and loss of biodiversity. New tools are needed to analyse the future dynamics of this nexus. Here, we introduce a set of model-based scenarios and associated Sankey diagrams that enable analysis of the relevant relationships and dynamics, as well as the options to formulate response strategies. The scenarios show that if no new policies are adopted, food production and energy generation could further increase by around 60%, and water consumption by around 20% over the period 2015-2050, leading to further degradation of resources and increasing environmental pressure. Response strategies in terms of climate policies, higher agricultural yields, dietary change and reduction of food waste are analysed to reveal how they may contribute to reversing these trends, and possibly even lead to a reduction of land use in the future.