Distribution of vaccine/antivirals and the 'least spread line' in a stratified population
Distribution of vaccine/antivirals and the 'least spread line' in a stratified population
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2009.0393
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发表时间：
2010-05-06
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Wallinga, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldstein, E.;Apolloni, A.;Wallinga, J.
我们描述了分配大量疫苗或抗病毒药的优先级方案。该方案以最佳策略为基础，用于在分层的质量表演模型中降低流行病的初始增长率。该策略在犹他州人口中描述相互作用和流感动态的情节网络上进行了测试，我们选择的分层是按年龄计算的（0，7 3，14 8，成人）。没有先前的豁免信息可用，因此每个人都被认为是易感的 - 这可能是相关的，可能与50岁以上的人相关的是2009 H1N1流感疫情。我们发现，分配大量季节性流感疫苗接种的最重点是幼儿（0-6），其次是青少年（14-18），然后是儿童（7-13），成年人的份额为很低。这些依赖于EPIPIMS网络的结构的结果与当前美国人口中的流感疫苗接种水平进行了比较。
We describe a prioritization scheme for an allocation of a sizeable quantity of vaccine or antivirals in a stratified population. The scheme builds on an optimal strategy for reducing the epidemic's initial growth rate in a stratified mass-action model. The strategy is tested on the EpiSims network describing interactions and influenza dynamics in the population of Utah, where the stratification we have chosen is by age (0 , 7 3, 14 8, adults). No prior immunity information is available, thus everyone is assumed to be susceptible-this may be relevant, possibly with the exception of persons over 50, to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak. We have found that the top priority in an allocation of a sizeable quantity of seasonal influenza vaccinations goes to young children (0-6), followed by teens (14-18), then children (7-13), with the adult share being quite low. These results, which rely on the structure of the EpiSims network, are compared with the current influenza vaccination coverage levels in the US population.