Why some generations are more violent than others: Assessment of age, period, and cohort effects
Why some generations are more violent than others: Assessment of age, period, and cohort effects
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwj172
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发表时间：
2006-07-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Farrington, DP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fabio, A;Loeber, R;Farrington, DP
缺乏评估社区一级暴力率为何随时间变化的实证纵向研究。尽管有广泛的文献，问题仍然是随着时间的推移是否变化是由于发生在特定时期的因素（时期效应）或连续队列中的个体（队列效应）。目的是评估年龄、时期和群体效应对暴力趋势的相对影响。作者评估了匹兹堡青年研究中两组男性（n = 1,009）自我报告的暴力行为的差异，该研究跟踪了1987年至2000年的犯罪和风险因素。年龄最小的队列为7-19岁，年龄最大的队列为13-25岁。每年的暴力措施进行了审查，通过广义估计方程。年龄最大的队列报告了更高的暴力水平，即使在调整了年龄和主要的个人层面的风险因素（比值比（OR）= 1.45，95%置信区间（CI）：1.17，1.81），如帮派参与和毒品交易，以及社区层面的因素（OR = 2.16，95% CI：1.65，2.82）。然而，当纳入阶段效应时，队列差异不显著（OR = 1.23，95% CI：0.78，1.94）。作者的结论是，随着时间的推移，暴力发生率的差异可能归因于不断变化的社会因素（时期效应），而不是群体中个人之间的差异（群体效应）。
Empirical longitudinal studies assessing why community-level violence rates change over time are lacking. Despite a wide-ranging literature, questions remain as to whether changes over time are due to factors occurring in specific periods (period effects) or individuals in successive cohorts (cohort effect). The objective was to assess the relative contribution of age, period, and cohort effects on violence trends. The authors assessed differences in self-reported violence between two cohorts of males (n = 1,009) from the Pittsburgh Youth Study, which tracked delinquency and risk factors from 1987 to 2000. The youngest cohort were aged 7-19 years, and the oldest cohort were aged 13-25 years. Yearly measures of violence were examined through generalized estimating equations. The oldest cohort reported higher levels of violence even after adjustment for age and major individual-level risk factors (odds ratio (OR) = 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17, 1.81) such as gang participation and drug dealing, as well as community-level factors (OR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.65, 2.82). However, when period effects were included, cohort differences were rendered insignificant (OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.78, 1.94). The authors conclude that differences in the rates of violence over time may be attributed to changing social factors (period effects) and not to differences between the individuals (cohort effect) of cohorts.