Uncertainty in US forest carbon storage potential due to climate risks
Uncertainty in US forest carbon storage potential due to climate risks
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-023-01166-7
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发表时间：
2023-04
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Chao Wu;S. Coffield;M. Goulden;J. Randerson;A. Trugman;W. Anderegg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chao Wu;S. Coffield;M. Goulden;J. Randerson;A. Trugman;W. Anderegg
森林具有通过固碳减缓人为气候变化的巨大潜力，并为社会提供大量共同惠益。然而，气候变化风险可能从根本上损害森林碳储存的持久性。在这里，我们通过融合历史和未来的气候预测，广泛的森林清查地块数据集，机器学习/生态位模型和机械陆面模型集成输出，在区域和物种水平上对美国连续森林地上碳储存潜力进行多方法合成。我们发现不同的迹象和规模的预测未来森林地上碳储量潜力在对比的方法，范围从平均总收益6.7 Pg C的损失0.9 Pg C，在中等排放的情况下。五大湖地区和美国东北部在各种方法和未来情景中显示出一致的碳增益迹象。在目前开展森林碳抵消项目的地区，发现碳损失的风险很大。这种多方法评估突出了美国森林碳储量潜力估计目前的显著不确定性，并为指导森林保护，恢复和基于自然的气候解决方案提供了关键基础。
Forests have considerable potential to mitigate anthropogenic climate change through carbon sequestration, as well as provide society with substantial co-benefits. However, climate change risks may fundamentally compromise the permanence of forest carbon storage. Here, we conduct a multi-method synthesis of contiguous US forest aboveground carbon storage potential at both regional and species levels through a fusion of historical and future climate projections, extensive forest inventory plots datasets, machine learning/niche models, and mechanistic land surface model ensemble outputs. We find diverging signs and magnitudes of projected future forest aboveground carbon storage potential across contrasting approaches, ranging from an average total gain of 6.7 Pg C to a loss of 0.9 Pg C, in a moderate-emissions scenario. The Great Lakes region and the northeastern United States showed consistent signs of carbon gains across approaches and future scenarios. Substantial risks of carbon losses were found in regions where forest carbon offset projects are currently located. This multi-method assessment highlights the current striking uncertainty in US forest carbon storage potential estimates and provides a critical foundation to guide forest conservation, restoration and nature-based climate solutions.