Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise
Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.018
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发表时间：
2016-11-05
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Leslie, Heather M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crosby, Sarah C.;Sax, Dov F.;Leslie, Heather M.
盐沼缓冲海岸线，并提供从风暴保护到食物供应的关键生态系统服务。在世界范围内，如果这些生态系统不能以与海平面上升相匹配的速度增加海拔，它们就有消失的危险。然而，预计损失的程度尚不清楚。合成盐沼海拔变化的现有记录进行，以考虑其未来的持久性的可能性。这一分析表明，在过去的世纪，许多盐沼没有跟上海平面上升的步伐，在过去的二十年里，这种速度甚至更慢。盐沼经历更高的当地海平面上升率不太可能跟上步伐。这些结果表明，海平面上升将超过大多数盐沼维持海拔的能力。根据IPCC最乐观的排放路径，到2100年，60%的盐沼将以不足以跟上海平面上升的速度上升。如果不减少温室气体排放，这一潜在损失可能超过90%，这将对生态、经济和人类健康产生重大影响。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.