Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long-term population trends of European migratory birds
Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long-term population trends of European migratory birds
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/ddi.13144
复制
发表时间：
2020-08-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Willis, Stephen G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Howard, Christine;Stephens, Philip A.;Willis, Stephen G.
目的全球迁徙物种数量的减少在很大程度上归因于气候变化和人为生境变化。然而，这些因素对物种繁育和非繁育范围的相对贡献尚不清楚。在这里，我们首次对气候条件和土地覆盖在繁殖和非繁殖地对推动迁徙物种长期种群趋势的相对重要性进行了大规模评估。地理位置：欧洲和非洲。方法利用61种欧洲繁殖鸟短途和39种长途候鸟的长期种群动态数据。我们分析了这些种群趋势与气候和土地覆盖的变化有关的物种繁育和非繁育范围在36年期间，以及物种的迁徙行为。结果欧洲候鸟的种群数量趋势与其繁殖地的气候变化的关系似乎比与其繁殖地的土地覆盖变化的关系更密切，而在非繁殖地的情况则相反。虽然短途移民繁育范围内气候适宜性的改善导致了人口趋势的增加，但长途移民的情况并非如此。气候和土地覆盖变化的综合影响约占候鸟数量趋势变化的40%，这表明除了我们测量的气候和土地覆盖外，其他因素，如栖息地质量，也影响候鸟的数量趋势。主要结论近几十年来，大多数迁徙物种的数量趋势与繁殖地的气候条件关系最密切，而非繁殖地的土地覆盖变化最大。这表明，为了遏制候鸟数量的下降，需要采取一种综合办法，考虑影响候鸟全年动态分布的所有过程。
Aim Global declines in the populations of migratory species have been attributed largely to climate change and anthropogenic habitat change. However, the relative contribution of these factors on species' breeding and non-breeding ranges is unclear. Here, we present the first large-scale assessment of the relative importance of climatic conditions and land cover on both the breeding and non-breeding grounds in driving the long-term population trends of migratory species. Location Europe and Africa. Methods We use data on the long-term population trends of 61 short- and 39 long-distance migratory species of European breeding birds. We analyse these population trends in relation to changes in climate and land cover across species' breeding and non-breeding ranges over a 36-year period, along with species' migratory behaviour. Results The population trends of European migratory birds appear to be more closely related to changes in climate than changes in land cover on their breeding grounds, but the converse is true on their non-breeding grounds. While improvements in climate suitability across the breeding ranges of short-distance migrants led to increasing population trends, the same was not true for long-distance migrants. The combined effects of changes in climate and land cover account for approximately 40% of the variation in migratory species' population trends, suggesting that factors other than climate and land cover as we have measured them, such as habitat quality, also affect the population trends of migrant birds. Main Conclusions Over recent decades, population trends of most migrant species are most strongly related to climatic conditions on the breeding grounds but land cover change on the non-breeding grounds. This suggests that management to stem the declines of migrant birds requires an integrated approach that considers all processes affecting migrant birds across their dynamic distributions throughout the year.