Comparing technological hype cycles: Towards a theory
Comparing technological hype cycles: Towards a theory
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比较技术炒作周期：走向理论
DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2012.12.004
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
A. Peine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Lente;C. Spitters;A. Peine
“炒作”的概念被广泛使用，代表了一种描述技术领域发展的诱人方式。这个词出现在商业和学术领域。咨询公司提供技术炒作周期模型，以确定技术领域的发展状况，以促进战略投资决策。在科学，技术和创新研究中，炒作的概念被认为是在创新过程中的期望动态研究中，重点是期望的表现力。目前还缺乏的是一种能够解释不同背景下不同形态的炒作周期的炒作模式理论。在本文中，我们通过研究和比较三个不同经验领域的三种炒作的案例研究结果，迈出了缩小这一差距的第一步：互联网语音协议（VoIP）、基因治疗和高温超导性。这些案例在技术类型和应用环境特征方面有所不同。我们的结论是，炒作模式确实有很大的不同，在不同层次上的期望的相互作用影响了一个领域的能力，以科普炒作和失望。
The notion of ‘hype’ is widely used and represents a tempting way to characterize developments in technological fields. The term appears in business as well as in academic domains. Consultancy firms offer technological hype cycle models to determine the state of development of technological fields in order to facilitate strategic investment decisions. In Science, Technology and Innovation Studies the concept of hype is considered in studies on the dynamics of expectations in innovation processes, which focuses on the performative force of expectations. What is still lacking is a theory ofhype patternsthat is able to explain the different shapes of hype cycles in different contexts. In this paper we take a first step towards closing this gap by studying and comparing the results of case studies on three hypes in three different empirical domains: voice over internet protocol (VoIP), gene therapy and high-temperature superconductivity. The cases differ in terms of the type of technology and the characteristics of the application environment. We conclude that hype patterns indeed vary a lot, and that the interplay of expectations at different levels affects the ability of a field to cope with hype and disappointment.