Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops - A modelling approach
Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops - A modelling approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2013.04.005
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发表时间：
2013-07-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Dabbert, Stephan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aurbacher, Joachim;Parker, Phillip S.;Dabbert, Stephan
气候变化可能会对中欧的可耕种农场产生影响。我们使用模型方法来评估气候变化导致的天气及其长期发展对种植和收获等短期决策以及产量的影响。两个模型相互耦合，农场管理模型FARMACTOR和作物生长模型系统Expert-N每天研究管理和作物生长之间的相互作用。我们研究了不同的方法来调整关于种植行动和年度产量的预期，以适应实际观测的天气和产量数据。我们的研究重点是德国西南部斯瓦边白垩区的两种主要作物冬小麦和青贮玉米。结果表明，该模型能够较好地再现过去种植和收获的发展过程以及产量。不同的预期形成方法对行动日期和收益率的影响只显示出微小的差异。未来的气候变化可能会改变现场行动的时机。假设技术不变(例如品种)，夏季作物可能更早播种，而冬季作物可能更晚播种；收获可能更早，产量可能略有下降，同时表现出更大的波动性。这种模拟方法有可能增加关于短期农业管理行动风险概况的知识，并改进耦合地球系统模型中的土地利用模拟部分。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Climatic change is likely to have an influence on arable farms in Central Europe. We use a modelling approach to assess the effects of weather and its long term development due to climate change on short-term decisions like planting and harvesting, as well as yields. Two models are coupled, a farm management model FARMACTOR and the crop growth model system EXPERT-N to investigate the interplay between management and crop growth on a daily basis. We examine different methods of adapting expectations concerning the timing of cropping actions and annual yields to actual observed weather and yield data. Our study focuses on the two major crops winter wheat and silage maize in the Swabian Alb in southwestern Germany. Results show that the model can satisfactorily reproduce the development of planting and harvesting as well as yields that have occurred in the past. Different methods of expectation formation only show minor differences in their effect on action dates and yields. Future climatic change is likely to shift the timing of field actions. Assuming no change in technology (e.g. cultivars), summer crops may be seeded earlier while winter crops could tend to be sown later; harvest may occur earlier and yields might slightly decrease while showing more volatility. This modelling approach has the potential to increase the knowledge about risk profiles of short time agricultural management actions and to improve the land use modelling part of coupled earth system models. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.