Emerging local warming signals in observational data
Emerging local warming signals in observational data
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl053952
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发表时间：
2012-11-14
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Solomon, Susan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mahlstein, Irina;Hegerl, Gabriele;Solomon, Susan
地球的全球平均温度有所上升，但地方气候的年复一年的变化阻碍了在观测和人类经验中确定明显的变化。要使一个信号在数据记录或人类一生中变得明显，它需要大于变异性的噪声，从而导致温度分布的显著变化。我们发现，最大的变暖量的位置可能不会显示一个明确的转变，温度分布，如果当地的变化也很大。仅根据观测数据，我们证明，地球的大部分地区在夏季经历了一个显着的局部转向温暖的温度，特别是在低纬度地区。我们还表明，这些地区是相似的，被发现是显着的标准检测方法，从而提供了一种方法，本地显着的变化更紧密地联系到影响。引文：Mahlstein，I.，G. Hegerl和S.所罗门（2012年），观测数据中出现的局部变暖信号，地球物理学。保留信函：39，L21711，doi：10.1029/2012GL053952。
The global average temperature of the Earth has increased, but year-to-year variability in local climates impedes the identification of clear changes in observations and human experience. For a signal to become obvious in data records or in a human lifetime it needs to be greater than the noise of variability and thereby lead to a significant shift in the distribution of temperature. We show that locations with the largest amount of warming may not display a clear shift in temperature distributions if the local variability is also large. Based on observational data only we demonstrate that large parts of the Earth have experienced a significant local shift towards warmer temperatures in the summer season, particularly at lower latitudes. We also show that these regions are similar to those that are found to be significant in standard detection methods, thus providing an approach to link locally significant changes more closely to impacts. Citation: Mahlstein, I., G. Hegerl, and S. Solomon (2012), Emerging local warming signals in observational data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21711, doi:10.1029/2012GL053952.