A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: Invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states
A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: Invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.03.005
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发表时间：
2010-06-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Rohani, Pejman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Breban, Romulus;Drake, John M.;Rohani, Pejman
虽然许多人类和野生动物的传染病是通过环境水库传播的，但环境传播理论仍然很不完善。在这里，我们介绍了一个SIR型的多株疾病传播模型，具有完美的交叉免疫，环境传播是广义定义的三个公理。我们建立的条件下，一个多菌株的地方病状态是由另一种菌株，这是直接和环境传播的入侵。我们讨论了环境传输项的显式形式，并将我们新推导的入侵条件应用于两种应变系统。然后，我们考虑具有匹配基本繁殖数的两个菌株的情况（即，R-0），一种仅直接传播，另一种既直接又环境传播，侵入彼此的地方病状态。我们发现仅直接传播的菌株可以侵入混合传播菌株的地方病状态。然而，第一株的地方病状态对第二株的入侵是中性稳定的。因此，我们的研究结果表明，环境传播使得地方病状态对入侵的抵抗力较低。(C)2010爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Although many infectious diseases of humans and wildlife are transmitted via an environmental reservoir, the theory of environmental transmission remains poorly elaborated. Here we introduce an SIR-type multi-strain disease transmission model with perfect cross immunity where environmental transmission is broadly defined by three axioms. We establish the conditions under which a multi-strain endemic state is invaded by another strain which is both directly and environmentally transmitted. We discuss explicit forms for environmental transmission terms and apply our newly derived invasion conditions to a two-strain system. Then, we consider the case of two strains with matching basic reproduction numbers (i.e., R-0), one directly transmitted only and the other both directly and environmentally transmitted, invading each other's endemic state. We find that the strain which is only directly transmitted can invade the endemic state of the strain with mixed transmission. However, the endemic state of the first strain is neutrally stable to invasion by the second strain. Thus, our results suggest that environmental transmission makes the endemic state less resistant to invasion. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.