A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy
A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.024
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Rotaris, Lucia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Danielis, Romeo;Giansoldati, Marco;Rotaris, Lucia
为了评估电动汽车在意大利的当前和未来前景，我们开发了一个概率总拥有成本（TCO）模型，其中包括随机和非随机变量、车辆使用和背景假设。我们发现电动汽车目前在意大利与传统的汽油或柴油汽车相比没有成本竞争力。然而，当每年行驶超过10，000公里时，它们与混合动力电动汽车具有成本竞争力。由于目前在意大利少数地区和城市实施的激励政策（5，000欧元的补贴和400欧元的停车费和通行费年节省），电动汽车在货币方面的表现优于混合动力电动汽车和一些柴油汽车，特别是如果它们在家里充电。然而，如果燃料价格遵循过去的趋势，即使没有补贴，电动汽车预计也将在2025年获得市场份额。驱动力可能是由于电池组成本下降导致零售价格下降，以及可能修改柴油税。
In order to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars' in Italy, we develop a probabilistic total cost of ownership (TCO) model, which includes stochastic and non-stochastic variables, vehicle usage and contextual assumptions. We find that electric cars are currently not cost-competitive in Italy with the conventional petrol or diesel cars. However, they are cost-competitive with the hybrid electric cars when more than 10,000 km are annually traveled. With incentivizing policies (a (sic)5,000 subsidy and a (sic)400 parking and access fee annual savings), currently in place in a limited number of Italian Regions and cities, electric cars perform in monetary terms better than hybrid electric cars and some diesel cars, especially if they are charged at home. However, electric cars are expected to gain market share in the year 2025 if fuel prices follow past trends, even without subsidies. The driving force could be a drop in their retail price, thanks to declining battery pack costs, and a possible revision of the taxes on diesel.