The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty
The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1093/gji/ggt481
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Bastos, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bos, M. S.;Williams, S. D. P.;Bastos, L.
海平面变化具有时间相关性。在估计海平面上升的过程中，这一点有时被忽略，或使用一阶自回归模型加以考虑。我们已经证实，这种随机模型是准确的年验潮和海平面重建时间序列，但它低估了卫星测高和月验潮数据的真实的率不确定性的一个因素的1.3-1.5，有时甚至2。海平面加速也有类似的结果。一个原始的发现是，在13- 17%的验潮数据中，我们发现随机游走平均增加了3倍的速率不确定性。在本研究中提出的估计误差应加入其他不确定性来源，如垂直的陆地运动，空间相关性和高度计漂移，以获得总的海平面速率和加速度误差。
It is well known that sea level variations exhibit temporal correlation. This is sometimes ignored in the estimation process of the sea level rise or taken into account using a first-order autoregressive model. We have verified that this stochastic model is accurate for yearly tide gauge and sea level reconstruction time-series but it underestimates the real rate uncertainty in satellite altimetry and monthly tide gauge data by a factor of 1.3-1.5 and sometimes even 2. Similar results were found for sea level acceleration. An original finding is that in 13-17 per cent of the tide gauge data, we found random walk which increases the rate uncertainty on average by an additional factor of 3. The estimation errors presented in this research should be added to the other sources of uncertainty, such as the vertical land movement, spatial correlation and altimeter drift, to obtain the total sea level rate and acceleration error.