What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value.
What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0260905
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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适应度是进化论的核心，但很难准确测量。衡量长期适应性的一种方法是计算个体的繁殖值，它代表个体传递给遥远的后代的等位基因拷贝的预期数量。然而，这种适应度指标很少被使用，因为对个体繁殖价值的估计需要长期的谱系数据，而这些数据在野生种群中很少可用，因为在野生种群中跟踪个体从出生到死亡往往是不可能的。因此，野生研究系统使用短期适应度指标作为代理，例如产生的后代数量。这项研究比较了在不同后代生命阶段（卵、孵化、雏鸟和新兵）获得的两种常用的短期健康指标，并比较了它们预测野生雀形目鸟类遗传谱系的繁殖值的能力。我们利用二十年的精确实地观察和近乎完整的遗传谱系来计算繁殖成功率、个体生长率和死亡健康度，作为终生健康度指标和年度死亡健康度。我们比较了这些指标预测研究期结束时的繁殖值和谱系存活率的能力。三个短期适应度指标仅在招募阶段测量时才能预测繁殖值和谱系存活率。同一后代阶段的不同适应度代理在预测繁殖值和谱系存活方面没有显着差异。一岁时的年度健康状况与终生死亡健康状况同样可以预测生殖价值。然而，没有一个短期健康指标与繁殖值密切相关。在招募阶段进行测量时，常用的短期健康指标可以最好地预测长期健康状况。因此，由于在新招募阶段测量的终生健康状况和生命第一年的年度健康状况是短命鸟类长期健康状况的最佳指标，因此我们鼓励它们在未来使用。
Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual’s reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However, this metric of fitness is scarcely used because the estimation of individual’s reproductive value requires long-term pedigree data, which is rarely available in wild populations where following individuals from birth to death is often impossible. Wild study systems therefore use short-term fitness metrics as proxies, such as the number of offspring produced. This study compared two frequently used short-term metrics for fitness obtained at different offspring life stages (eggs, hatchlings, fledglings and recruits), and compared their ability to predict reproductive values derived from the genetic pedigree of a wild passerine bird population. We used twenty years of precise field observations and a near-complete genetic pedigree to calculate reproductive success, individual growth rate and de-lifed fitness as lifetime fitness measures, and as annual de-lifed fitness. We compared the power of these metrics to predict reproductive values and lineage survival to the end of the study period. The three short-term fitness proxies predict the reproductive values and lineage survival only when measured at the recruit stage. There were no significant differences between the different fitness proxies at the same offspring stages in predicting the reproductive values and lineage survival. Annual fitness at one year old predicted reproductive values equally well as lifetime de-lifed fitness. However, none of the short-term fitness proxies were strongly associated with the reproductive values. The commonly used short-term fitness proxies best predict long-term fitness when measured at recruitment stage. Thus, because lifetime fitness measured at recruit stage and annual fitness in the first year of life were the best proxies of long-term fitness in short-lived birds, we encourage their future use.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2019.0356
发表时间：
2020-04-27
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Grafen, Alan
通讯作者：
Grafen, Alan
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Dobson, F. Stephen;Lane, Jeffrey E.;Murie, Jan O.
通讯作者：
Murie, Jan O.
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Hunter, Darren C.;Pemberton, Josephine M.;Morrissey, Michael B.
通讯作者：
Morrissey, Michael B.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Barton, Nicholas H.;Etheridge, Alison M.
通讯作者：
Etheridge, Alison M.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Brommer, JE;Gustafsson, L;Merilä, J
通讯作者：
Merilä, J