The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform
The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1749-124x.2006.00044.x
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发表时间：
2006-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Ogawa;M. Sakane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Ogawa;M. Sakane
本文考察了2005年7月21日中国汇率制度改革后中国政府的实际汇率政策。此外，我们还研究了人民币汇率的长期效应（巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应）。我们发现，中国政府在截至2006年1月25日的样本期内，在汇率政策上有一个统计上显著但很小的变化。由于从经济学角度来看，货币篮子制度的变化幅度太小，因此不能认定中国货币当局正在采用货币篮子制度。一方面，生产率增长率的提高会使人民币对美元和日元升值，另一方面，中国可贸易品部门生产率增长率的提高会使人民币产生巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应，即低估倾向。
In this paper, we investigate the actual exchange rate policy conducted by the Chinese government after the Chinese exchange rate system reform on July 21 2005. Also, we investigate long-run effect (Balassa-Samuelson effect) on the Chinese yuan. We found that the Chinese government had a statistically significant but small change in exchange rate policy during our sample period to January 25, 2006. It is not identified that the Chinese monetary authority is adopting the currency basket system because the change is too small in the economic sense. On one hand, higher growth rate of productivity will appreciate the Chinese yuan in terms of the US dollar and the Japanese yen while higher growth rates of productivity in Chinese tradable good sector tend to give the Balassa-Samuleson effect, that is undervaluation bias, to the Chinese yuan.