A Sudy on Population Change and Projection in Korean Mountainous Area
A Sudy on Population Change and Projection in Korean Mountainous Area
复制标题
DOI：
10.7851/ksrp.2019.25.4.099
复制
发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Seol, Ara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang, Chu Youn;Bae, Jae Soo;Seol, Ara
本文利用内政安全部的居民登记数据，分析了466个山区2000 - 2018年的人口变化特征，并采用队列变化率法对这些地区到2050年的人口进行了预测。从2000年到2009年，人口急剧减少。随着2010年后人口减少速度放缓，自2014年以来人口逐渐增加。特别是2018年65岁以上的人口比2000年增加了34%，而工作年龄人口减少了29%。这说明人口老龄化在山区已经成为一个严重的问题。假设2010年至2015年的队列变化率和2015年的儿童-妇女比率保持不变，则山区的预计人口似乎在2030年降至126万，在2050年降至82万。预计人口结构呈倒金字塔形，60年代和70年代女性较多，性别失衡。虽然报告继续显示山区人口最近有所增长，但预计山区人口将持续减少。因此，需要制定政策和战略，促进人们涌入山区，以维持山区的功能和可持续性。
This paper analyzed the characteristics of population change from 2000 to 2018 in 466 mountainous areas using resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and projected the population in those areas through 2050 with the cohort change ratio method. The population had dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2009. With the slowing population decrease after 2010, the population has increased gradually since 2014. Especially the population of ages over 65 in 2018 had increased 34% compared to 2000, while the working age population had decreased 29%. This shows that population aging becomes serious problems in the mountainous area. Assuming the cohort change ratios from 2010 to 2015 and child-woman ratio in 2015 remain constant, it appeared that the projected population of the mountainous area dropped to 1.26 million in 2030 and 820,000 in 2050. It is expected to have a population with an inverted pyramid structure showing a gender imbalance with more females in 60’s and 70’s. Although it continues to show the recent population growth in mountainous area, population in mountainous area is expected to consistently decrease. Therefore, it is required to develop policies and strategies to promote an influx of people into mountainous area for maintaining functionality and sustainability of mountainous areas.