Explaining Theft Using Offenders' Activity Space Inferred from Residents' Mobile Phone Data
Explaining Theft Using Offenders' Activity Space Inferred from Residents' Mobile Phone Data
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DOI：
10.3390/ijgi13010008
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发表时间：
2023-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lin Liu;Chenchen Li;Luzi Xiao;Guangwen Song
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lin Liu;Chenchen Li;Luzi Xiao;Guangwen Song
犯罪者的家庭区域和日常活动区域都可以影响犯罪的空间分布。然而，现有的研究一般仅限于犯罪人的家庭及其周边地区的影响，而忽略了其他活动空间。最近的研究报告指出，罪犯的日常活动与居住在同一附近的居民的活动相似。基于这一发现，我们的研究提出了一个基于流量的方法来衡量罪犯是如何分布在空间根据居民的空间流动性。研究区域包括中国东南部ZG市的2643个社区，基于移动的电话数据计算每两个社区之间的居民流。罪犯的活动地点是从居住在同一社区的居民的流动性来推断的。每个社区的估计罪犯人数包括居住在那里的罪犯和访问那里的罪犯。负二项回归模型被构建来测试这个估计的罪犯数量的解释能力。结果表明，流动为基础的罪犯计数优于家庭为基础的罪犯计数。它也优于一个空间滞后的计数，考虑从紧邻社区的罪犯。该方法改进了对犯罪分子空间分布的估计，有助于犯罪分析和警务实践。
Both an offender’s home area and their daily activity area can impact the spatial distribution of crime. However, existing studies are generally limited to the influence of the offender’s home area and its immediate surrounding areas, while ignoring other activity spaces. Recent studies have reported that the routine activities of an offender are similar to those of the residents living in the same vicinity. Based on this finding, our study proposed a flow-based method to measure how offenders are distributed in space according to the spatial mobility of the residents. The study area consists of 2643 communities in ZG City in southeast China; resident flows between every two communities were calculated based on mobile phone data. Offenders’ activity locations were inferred from the mobility flows of residents living in the same community. The estimated count of offenders in each community included both the offenders living there and offenders visiting there. Negative binomial regression models were constructed to test the explanatory power of this estimated offender count. Results showed that the flow-based offender count outperformed the home-based offender count. It also outperformed a spatial-lagged count that considers offenders from the immediate neighboring communities. This approach improved the estimation of the spatial distribution of offenders, which is helpful for crime analysis and police practice.