Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean
Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean
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DOI：
10.1029/2004jd005348
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发表时间：
2005-04-08
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Arnell, NW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, NW
观测证据表明，流入北冰洋的河流在过去30年中有所增加。海平面持续上升有可能改变北极和北大西洋的淡水平衡，从而改变温盐环流。使用宏观水文模型和从六个气候模式和两个排放情景中得出的气候变化情景进行的模拟表明，到2080年代，在高排放情景下流入北极的河流最多增加31%，在低排放情景下最多增加24%，尽管气候模式之间存在很大差异。不确定性分析表明，对模型形式和参数化的敏感性较低，但对用于驱动模型的输入数据的敏感性较高。高达0.048 sdrup (Sv, 10(6) m（3) s(-1)）的增加是可能引发热盐崩溃的0.06-0.15 Sv额外淡水的很大一部分。流入北冰洋的空间分布的变化可能影响海洋内的环流型态。
Observational evidence suggests that river inflows to the Arctic Ocean have increased over the last 30 years. Continued increases have the potential to alter the freshwater balance in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans and hence the thermohaline circulation. Simulations with a macroscale hydrological model and climate change scenarios derived from six climate models and two emissions scenarios suggest increases of up to 31% in river inflows to the Arctic by the 2080s under high emissions and up to 24% under lower emissions, although there are large differences between climate models. Uncertainty analysis suggests low sensitivity to model form and parameterization but higher sensitivity to the input data used to drive the model. The addition of up to 0.048 sverdrup (Sv, 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) is a large proportion of the 0.06-0.15 Sv of additional freshwater that may trigger thermohaline collapse. Changes in the spatial distribution of inflows to the Arctic Ocean may influence circulation patterns within the ocean.