The winter floods of 2015/2016 in the UK - a review
The winter floods of 2015/2016 in the UK - a review
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发表时间：
2016-12
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通讯作者：
T. Marsh;C. Kirby;K. Muchan;L. Barker;E. Henderson;J. Hannaford
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作者：
T. Marsh;C. Kirby;K. Muchan;L. Barker;E. Henderson;J. Hannaford
2015年11月初开始的一场持续约14周、异常温和的气旋带来了严重、广泛和持久的洪水，对英国北方、北方爱尔兰和威尔士部分地区造成了最严重的影响。在此期间，许多现有的降雨量和季节性温度记录都黯然失色，最值得注意的是，该国大部分地区的河流流量超过了最大记录。在全国范围内，以前最大的每日和每月流出量明显黯然失色，四个相对离散的极端径流事件可以识别。在许多地区，洪水的严重性、持续性和重复性对社区、基础设施、农业和许多其他经济部门产生了重大不利影响。洪水的范围和持续时间在历史记录中几乎没有相似之处，总的来说，这是一个水文气象事件，与1975/1976年的干旱和1947年的洪水并列为至少在过去100年中观测记录中捕获的最极端的大规模事件。1947年和1976年经历的真正异常的径流模式对洪水和干旱管理策略产生了重大影响，但发生在气候变化的影响加剧之前。2015/2016年的洪水，以及21世纪世纪以来其他长期洪水事件的影响，强调了调整工程设计和洪水管理策略的必要性，以适应最近记录的径流变化范围的扩大。
A remarkably persistent and exceptionally mild cyclonic episode beginning in early-November 2015 and lasting around fourteen weeks brought severe, extensive and protracted flooding which impacted most damagingly on northern Britain, Northern Ireland and parts of Wales. Many existing rainfall and seasonal temperature records were eclipsed during this period and, most notably, maximum recorded river flows were exceeded over a substantial proportion of the country. At the national scale, previous maximum daily and monthly outflows were clearly eclipsed and four relatively discrete episodes of extreme runoff can be recognised. In many areas, the magnitude, persistence and repetitive nature of the flooding had major adverse impacts on communities, infrastructure, agriculture and a host of other sectors of the economy. The extent and duration of the flooding has very few close parallels in the historical record and, overall, it was a hydrometeorological episode which ranks alongside the 1975/1976 drought and 1947 floods as the most extreme broad-scale events captured in observational records during the last 100 years at least. The truly exceptional runoff patterns experienced in 1947 and 1976 had a major impact on flood and drought management strategies but occurred before the exacerbating impact of climate change was generally recognised. The 2015/2016 flooding, together with the impact of other protracted flood events in the 21st century thus far, has underlined the need to adapt engineering design and flood management strategies to accommodate the recent extension in the range of recorded runoff variability.