The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus
The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl072908
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发表时间：
2017-04-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Fedorov, Alexey V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Shineng;Fedorov, Alexey V.
2000年后，全球平均表面温度（GMST）的缓慢增长率，被称为“全球变暖间断”，最近让位于温度的快速上升。这一上升与2014年3月至2016年5月赤道太平洋持续温暖的条件相吻合，这一条件在2015年极端厄尔尼诺现象中达到顶峰。在这里，我们表明，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）严格控制在热带地区的大气加热率的年际变化（r > 0.9），使我们能够构建一个简单的，基于物理的模型GMST变化，包括温室气体排放，ENSO强迫，和平流层硫酸盐气溶胶由火山产生。该模型密切再现了自1880年以来的GMST变化，包括全球变暖的中断和随后的温度上升。我们的研究结果证实，弱厄尔尼诺活动，而不是火山爆发，是中断的原因，而温度的快速上升是由于2014-2016年厄尔尼诺条件下的大气热量释放与持续的全球变暖趋势。
Slower rates of increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after 2000, dubbed "global warming hiatus," recently gave way to a rapid temperature rise. This rise coincided with persistent warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific between March 2014 and May 2016, which peaked as the 2015 extreme El Nino. Here we show that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tightly controls interannual variations in atmospheric heating rate in the tropics (r > 0.9), allowing us to construct a simple, physically based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by volcanoes. The model closely reproduces GMST changes since 1880, including the global warming hiatus and the subsequent temperature rise. Our results confirm that weak El Nino activity, rather than volcanic eruptions, was the cause of the hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Nino conditions concurrent with the continuing global warming trend.