Main Drivers of the Recent Decline in Italy's Non-Construction Investment
Main Drivers of the Recent Decline in Italy's Non-Construction Investment
复制标题
近期意大利非建筑投资下降的主要驱动因素
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2649939
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Zevi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Busetti;Claire Giordano;G. Zevi
本文分析了自2007年以来意大利非建筑投资异常显著下降的原因。非金融私人服务业是总投资率下降的主要推动力，但所有行业都受到负面影响;工业增加值的重新分配进一步拖累了投资。与调查结果一致的是，投资的总体模型表明，即使在最近的双重衰退期间，资本积累的最重要驱动力也是需求条件。资本的使用者成本在主权债务危机的严重阶段产生了巨大的负面影响，但自2013年以来，由于欧洲央行的扩张性货币政策，其贡献一直是积极的。2009年和2012年，信贷供应紧张对资本积累造成的制约尤为严重。最后，不确定性不仅在全球金融危机期间，而且在过去两年也对投资增长造成了相当大的拖累。13个制造业部门的分解模型也证实了这些投资决定因素的重要性。
This paper examines the causes of the exceptionally marked fall in non-construction investment in Italy since 2007. Non-financial private services were the main driver of the decline in the aggregate investment rate, but all sectors weighed in negatively; the reallocation of value added away from industry was a further drag on investment. In concordance with survey findings, an aggregate model of investment indicates that even during the recent double recession the most important driver of capital accumulation was demand conditions. The user cost of capital had a substantial negative impact in the acute phases of the sovereign debt crisis, but since 2013 its contribution has been positive, thanks to the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy. The constraints on capital accumulation imposed by tight credit supply conditions were particularly severe in 2009 and 2012. Finally, uncertainty provided a sizeable drag on investment growth not only during the global financial crisis but also in the last two years. The significance of these determinants of investment is confirmed also by a disaggregated model for the thirteen manufacturing branches.