Ten year recurrence time between two major earthquakes affecting the same fault segment
Ten year recurrence time between two major earthquakes affecting the same fault segment
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl059465
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发表时间：
2014-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Vallée;C. Satriano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Vallée;C. Satriano
当地震破裂遇到阻碍进一步传播的障碍物时，地震破裂就会停止。理论上，这些障碍可能源于地震断层的几何形状或性质的变化，或者来自构造应力的强烈降低，通常是由于最近发生的大地震。我们在这里表明，后一种机制在阻止破裂扩张方面可能是无效的：2013年11月17日斯科舍海7.8级地震已经传播到10年前7.6级地震已经破裂的100公里长的区域。考虑到斯科舍和南极板块之间的板块速度（8-9毫米/年），简单的重现模型可以预测，受2003年地震影响的板块在几百年内不会因大地震而再次破裂。这对地震表明，在地震历史的断层构造应力的变化是小的应力动态产生的大地震相比。
Earthquake ruptures stop when they encounter barriers impeding further propagation. These barriers can theoretically originate from changes of geometry or nature of the seismic faults or from a strong lowering of the tectonic stresses, typically due to the occurrence of a recent major earthquake. We show here that this latter mechanism can be ineffective at stopping rupture expansion: the 17 November 2013 magnitude 7.8 Scotia Sea earthquake has propagated into a 100 km long zone already ruptured 10 years ago by a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. Given the plate velocities between Scotia and Antarctic plates (8–9 mm/yr), simple recurrence models would have predicted that the segment affected by the 2003 earthquake could not be reruptured by a major earthquake during several hundreds of years. This earthquake pair indicates that the variations of the tectonic stress during the seismic history of the fault are small compared to the stresses dynamically generated by a large earthquake.