Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown
Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2575461
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发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Baker;Constantine Yannelis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Baker;Constantine Yannelis
我们使用2013年联邦政府关门和来自一个在线个人理财网站的丰富数据集来研究收入变化对消费变化的影响。2013年政府关门对联邦政府工作人员来说是一次重大的、意想不到的收入冲击，对永久收入没有直接影响。我们利用了未受影响的州雇员和受影响的联邦雇员之间的差异，以及需要继续工作的联邦雇员和需要呆在家里的雇员之间的差异。此外，我们能够辨别出弹性差异很大的各种详细类型的家庭支出。我们发现了消费模式过度敏感的有力证据，违反了永久收入假说。我们证明，这种支出的下降在很大程度上可以解释为信贷约束，增加家庭生产，并在时间分配的变化。结果表明，流动性和行为反应的重要性时，构建刺激或社会保险政策。
We use the 2013 federal government shutdown and rich data set from an online personal finance website to study the effects of changes in income on changes in consumption. The 2013 shutdown represented a significant and unanticipated income shock for federal government workers, with no direct effect on permanent income. We exploit both the differences between unaffected state employees and affected federal employees as well as between federal employees required to remain at work and those required to stay at home. Furthermore, we are able to discern various detailed types of household spending with widely varying elasticities. We find strong evidence for excess sensitivity of consumption patterns, violating the permanent income hypothesis. We demonstrate that this decline in spending can be largely explained by credit constraints, increased home production, and changes in time allocation. The results demonstrate the importance of liquidity and behavioral responses when constructing stimulus or social insurance policy.