Econometric analysis on factors influencing agricultural production output
Econometric analysis on factors influencing agricultural production output
复制标题
农业产量影响因素的计量分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Wang Shao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhou Chang;Wang Shao
在我国后备耕地资源匮乏的背景下，研究农业生产的影响因素及其优化策略，对于指导农业生产具有重要意义。基于2001 - 2010年中国农业发展面板数据，选取投入（土地、化肥、劳动力和机械化水平）、水旱灾害、保障性（财政支农、减灾工程）和农业生产结构作为影响农业生产的指标，运用计量模型分析各指标对农业生产的影响。结果表明：2001-2010年是建国以来农业资本深化率最高的时期，农业资本深化率高放大了劳动力的挤出效应;减灾是农业增产的重要突破口;金融支农是我国农业发展的有力保障;以市场为导向调整农业生产结构仍是增加农业生产的重要途径。
Under the background of lack of the reserved cultivated land resources in China, it is very important to guide the agricultural production to study the factors influencing of agricultural production and their optimizing strategy. Based on Chinese agriculture development panel data from 2001 to 2010, this paper selects inputs (land, fertilizer, labor and mechanization level), floods and droughts, supportability (financial support to agriculture, disaster reduction engineering) and agricultural production structure as the indicators influencing agricultural production, to analyze the influence of each indicator on agricultural production by econometric model. The results indicate that the highest rate of agriculture capital deepening occurs in the period of 2001-2010 since 1949, and such high rate of agriculture capital deepening amplifies the crowding-out effect of labor forces; disaster reduction is an important breakthrough for increasing the agricultural production; financial support to agriculture is a powerful guarantee for the development of China's agriculture; and restructuring agricultural production with market as guide is still an important way to increase the agricultural production.