Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change
Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/conl.12587
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beyer, Hawthorne L.;Kennedy, Emma, V;Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
珊瑚礁生态系统受到不断变化的海洋条件的严重威胁。虽然涉及许多因素，但气候变化已成为一个主要的和迅速增长的威胁。迫切需要制定一项保护珊瑚礁的长期战略计划，但由于气候变化对珊瑚礁生态系统的影响存在重大不确定性，这一工作变得更加复杂。我们使用现代投资组合理论来确定全球珊瑚礁的位置，在没有其他影响的情况下，相对于其他珊瑚礁，这些珊瑚礁很可能有更大的机会在预计的气候变化中幸存下来。对未来条件的不确定性具有鲁棒性的长期规划为指导保护行动和战略投资提供了客观和透明的框架。这些地点为新的保护投资提供了重要机会，以保护不那么脆弱但联系良好的珊瑚礁，从而在气候稳定的情况下帮助恢复退化地区的人口。
Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and rapidly growing threat. Developing a long-term strategic plan for the conservation of coral reefs is urgently needed yet is complicated by significant uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems. We use Modern Portfolio Theory to identify coral reef locations globally that, in the absence of other impacts, are likely to have a heightened chance of surviving projected climate changes relative to other reefs. Long-term planning that is robust to uncertainty in future conditions provides an objective and transparent framework for guiding conservation action and strategic investment. These locations constitute important opportunities for novel conservation investments to secure less vulnerable yet well-connected coral reefs that may, in turn, help to repopulate degraded areas in the event that the climate has stabilized.