Assessing Climate Change Impact on System Reliability of Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Hurricanes
Assessing Climate Change Impact on System Reliability of Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Hurricanes
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)is.1943-555x.0000316
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发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
A. Salman;Yue Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Salman;Yue Li
摘要 由于气候变化导致热带气旋强度可能增加，飓风对配电系统造成的损害可能会增加。这将加剧公用事业公司和社区因飓风对配电系统造成的损害而造成的高额成本。因此，对关键民用基础设施系统（例如配电系统）的长期投资需要考虑气候变化的潜在影响的长期规划。这只能通过全面的风险分析框架来评估气候变化的影响并研究各种适应策略的有效性来实现。本文提出了一个框架，将气候变化的潜在影响纳入遭受飓风灾害的配电系统的可靠性分析中。该框架包含了随时间变化的飓风灾害模型、随时间变化的脆弱性模型、系统可靠性评估和生命周期模型。
AbstractDamage to power distribution systems due to hurricanes is likely to increase due to a possible increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones caused by climate change. This will exacerbate the already high cost incurred by utility companies and communities due to damage to distribution systems by hurricanes. Consequently, long-term investment in critical civil infrastructure systems, such as distribution systems, requires long-term planning that incorporates the potential impact of climate change. This can only be achieved through a comprehensive risk analysis framework for evaluating the impact of climate change and studying the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies. This paper presents a framework for incorporating the potential impact of climate change in the reliability analysis of power distribution systems subject to hurricane hazards. The framework incorporates a time-dependent hurricane hazard model, time-dependent fragility model, system reliability evaluation, and a life cycle c...