Using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs on solar PV installations
Using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs on solar PV installations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.02.039
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发表时间：
2012-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Chiung-Wen Hsu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chiung-Wen Hsu
为了实现国家二氧化碳减排目标，台湾政府正计划采取政策，如上网电价（FIT）和资本补贴，以吸引公众和企业投资和使用太阳能光伏（PV）系统。然而，政府实施这些政策需要巨额预算。因此，重要的是要充分认识到促进太阳能光伏应用的政策或政策组合具有最大的经济效益。本研究使用系统动力学的方法来开发一个模拟评估这些促进政策。使用这个模拟系统，政策制定者可以进行成本/效益分析的不同组合的促进政策，CO2减排目标，和预算限制。此外，模拟场景包括不同的FIT价格，补贴和年度ROI（投资回报率）上限。模拟期为2011年至2030年。我们发现，当只采用固定投资回报率上限的FIT或资本补贴时，提高FIT价格或补贴是一个很好的方法。当投资回报率上限固定时，不同的上网电价和补贴组合对太阳能光伏应用积累的影响并不显著。然而，高补贴、低初始上网电价的推广政策具有较低的平均CO2减排成本。
To achieve national CO2emission reduction targets, the Taiwanese government is planning to adopt policies, such as feed-in tariffs (FITs) and capital subsidies, in order to attract the public as well as companies to invest in and use solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, a huge budget is necessary for the government to implement such policies. Therefore, it is important that it fully recognizes which policy, or combination of policies, promoting solar PV applications has the greatest economic benefit. This study uses the system dynamics approach to develop a simulation for assessing these promotion policies. Using this simulation system, policymakers can carry out cost/benefit analyses for different combinations of promotion policies, CO2emission reduction goals, and budget limitations. In addition, the simulation scenarios include different FIT prices, subsidies, and upper limits of annual ROI (return of investment). The simulation period is from 2011 to 2030. We find that when adopting only FITs or capital subsidies with a fixed upper limit of ROI, increasing the FIT price or subsidy is a good approach. When the upper limit of ROI is fixed, the effect of different combinations of FIT prices and subsidies on the accumulation of solar PV applications is insignificant. Nevertheless, the promotion policy with the higher subsidy and lower initial FIT price has a lower average cost of CO2emission reduction.