Predictors of congestive heart failure mortality in elderly people from the general population.
Predictors of congestive heart failure mortality in elderly people from the general population.
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DOI：
10.1536/ihj.46.419
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发表时间：
2005-07
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
A. Mazza;V. Tikhonoff;E. Casiglia;A. Pessina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Mazza;V. Tikhonoff;E. Casiglia;A. Pessina
充血性心力衰竭(CHF)在老年人中非常普遍。这项研究的目的是在65岁以上的患者中确定预测CHF死亡率的因素，这些患者在初次筛查时没有CHF。在以人口为基础的框架内，总共招募了3282名老年受试者，并记录了12年的事件。连续的项目被分成三分位数，对于每一个调整后的三分位数，从CHF死亡率的多变量Cox分析中得出了男女性别的相对危险度(RR)和95%的可信区间(CI)。年龄和年龄；OR=72岁([RR]：2.24；95%CI 1.56-3.24)，男性([RR]：1.4；95%CI 1.02-1.76)，冠心病病史([RR]：1.25；95%CI 1.02-1.76)，脉压和GT；OR=79毫米汞([RR]：1.33；95%CI 1.03-1.87)，心率和GT；OR=81次/分([RR]：1.32)；95%可信区间1.10~1.96)、房颤([RR]：1.82；95%可信区间1.18~2.81)、左心室肥厚([RR]：1.42；95%可信区间1.01~2.02)、糖尿病([RR]：1.35；95%可信区间1.02~1.78)、肺活量和1t=81%理论值([RR]：2.50；95%CI 1.88~3.32)、1秒用力呼气量和1t；OR=理论值的72%([RR]：2.02；95%CI为1.55-2.72)和血钠水平和Lt；OR=139 mmol/L([RR]：1.95；95%CI为1.44-2.63)预测CHF死亡率。该模型能够识别心力衰竭死亡风险增加的老年人。
Congestive heart failure (CHF) is highly prevalent in the elderly. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of CHF mortality in patients over 65 years of age who were free of CHF at initial screening. A total of 3,282 elderly subjects were recruited in a population-based frame and 12-year events were recorded. Continuous items were divided into tertiles and for each tertile adjusted the relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was derived in both genders from multivariate Cox analysis of CHF mortality. Age > or = 72 years ([RR]: 2.24; 95% CI 1.56 - 3.24), male gender ([RR]: 1.4; 95%CI 1.02 - 1.76), clinical history of coronary artery disease ([RR]: 1.25; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.76), pulse pressure > or = 79 mmHg ([RR]: 1.33; 95% CI 1.03 - 1.87), heart rate > or = 81 bpm ([RR]: 1.32; 95% CI 1.10 - 1.96), atrial fibrillation ([RR]: 1.82; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.81), left ventricular hypertrophy ([RR]: 1.42; 95% CI 1.01 - 2.02), diabetes ([RR]: 1.35; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.78), vital capacity < or = 81% of the theoretical value ([RR]: 2.50; 95% CI 1.88 - 3.32), forced expiratory volume in 1 second < or = 72% of the theoretical value ([RR]: 2.02; 95% CI 1.55 - 2.72) and serum sodium level < or = 139 mmol/L ([RR]: 1.95; 95% CI 1.44 - 2.63) predicted CHF mortality. This model is able to identify elderly people at increased risk of death from CHF.