Synchronous dynamics and rates of extinction in spatially structured populations
Synchronous dynamics and rates of extinction in spatially structured populations
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1997.0069
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发表时间：
1997-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Lindstrom, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heino, M;Kaitala, V;Lindstrom, J
我们探索灭绝率使用一组服从Ricker动力学的空间排列的亚种群。种群系统受到个体在亚种群中的扩散以及局部和全局扰动的影响。我们观察到全球灭绝率与亚群动态同步水平之间存在密切的正相关关系。全球扰动和较小程度上的迁移能够在相当宽的种群增长率r范围内同步子种群的时间动态。局部噪声降低了同步性，就像子种群之间的距离增加一样。同步性也随着r的增加而趋于平稳：在混沌区域，子种群几乎总是表现出异步性。我们的结论是，这是减少的概率，全球性的竞争，而不是混乱这样：混乱只是一个特殊的情况。全球灭绝率，同步动态和人口增长率之间的关系是强大的扩散率和范围的变化。
We explore extinction rates using a spatially arranged set of subpopulations obeying Ricker dynamics. The population system is subjected to dispersal of individuals among the subpopulations as well as to local and global disturbances. We observe a tight positive correlation between global extinction rate and the level of synchrony in dynamics among the subpopulations. Global disturbances and to a lesser extent, migration, are capable of synchronizing the temporal dynamics of the subpopulations over a rather wide span of the population growth rate r. Local noise decreases synchrony, as does increasing distance among the subpopulations. Synchrony also levels off with increasing r: in the chaotic region, subpopulations almost invariably behave asynchronously. We conclude that it is asynchrony that reduces the probability of global extinctions, not chaos as such: chaos is a special case only. The relationship between global extinction rate, synchronous dynamics and population growth rate is robust to changes in dispersal rates and ranges.