Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries
Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/034004
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发表时间：
2009-07-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Hertel, Thomas W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ahmed, Syud A.;Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Hertel, Thomas W.
极端气候事件可能通过影响农业生产力和提高对发展中国家贫困家庭至关重要的主食价格来影响贫困。由于预计未来极端气候事件的频率和强度将发生变化，明智的政策设计和分析需要了解哪些国家和群体最容易受到日益严重的贫困的影响。本文采用一种新的经济气候分析框架，评估了气候波动对16个发展中国家7个社会经济群体的贫困影响。我们发现，当前气候波动下的极端气候加剧了发展中国家样本的贫困，特别是在孟加拉国、墨西哥、印度尼西亚和非洲，城市工薪阶层是最脆弱的群体。我们还发现，全球变暖加剧了许多国家的贫困脆弱性。
Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample-particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa-with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.