A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010
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发表时间：
2009-07-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Winter, Larry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mahmoud, Mohammed;Liu, Yuqiong;Winter, Larry
情景是世界未来可能的状态，代表不同假设下的替代合理条件。设想方案往往是在与参与其应用的利益攸关方相关的背景下制定的，因为对设想方案结果和影响的评价可以加强决策活动。本文回顾了情景开发的最新进展，并提出了一种环境决策情景开发的形式化方法。对情景研究中当前问题的讨论包括利用正式情景开发框架的优势和障碍、情景开发中固有的不同形式的不确定性以及应如何对待它们。为了清晰起见，附上了常见场景术语的附录。对这一领域未来研究的主要建议包括适当考虑情景研究中的不确定性，特别是与利益攸关方相关的信息，构建性质更多样化的情景，以及在情景开发研究界共享信息和资源。(C)2008爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.