Trend of blood donors entering the coronavirus pandemic era and challenges: Age-Period-Cohort analysis using 75.5 million all blood donations data during 2006-2020 in Japan
Trend of blood donors entering the coronavirus pandemic era and challenges: Age-Period-Cohort analysis using 75.5 million all blood donations data during 2006-2020 in Japan
复制标题
进入冠状病毒大流行时代的献血者趋势和挑战：使用日本2006-2020年7550万献血数据进行年龄-时期-队列分析
作者：
Imada H;Akita T;Sugiyama A;Tanaka J
日本的献血目标“献血促进2025”是厚生劳动省献血促进研究组（BD研究组）利用截至2018年的全国献血数据，推算出的2025年的献血率为5.7%。然而，自2020年以来的COVID - 19可能会影响日本的献血率。方法使用2006 - 2020年7550万份献血数据。应用年龄-时期-队列模型（APC模型）估计年龄、时期和出生队列因素对献血率的影响，并预测2021年至2035年年龄特异性献血率。结果APC模型对献血率具有较高的重现性（修正dr2 = 0.99）。2020年献血率为6.0%（504万人次），比2019年有所上升。本研究与BD研究组相比，预测2025年16-19岁和20多岁人群的献血率较低（4.8%对5.2%，5.3%对5.5%），但50多岁和60多岁人群的献血率较高（7.9%对7.5%，4.2%对3.9%）。尽管2019冠状病毒病（COVID - 19），但2020年的献血人数仍在增加，这证明了献血宣传的有效性。我们的研究与BD研究组的报告中不同的年龄特异性献血率推断出COVID - 19对献血的影响因年龄而异，并提示需要不同的代际献血促进方法。
BackgroundIn Japan, “Blood Donation Promotion 2025,” a blood donation target, was established based on a predicted blood donation rate of 5.7% in 2025, which was calculated by the Blood Donation Promotion Study Group (BD research group) of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare using nationwide blood donation data through 2018. However, COVID‐19 since 2020 may affect the blood donation rate in Japan.MethodData from 75.5 million blood donations from 2006 to 2020 was used. The age‐period‐cohort model (APC model) was applied to estimate age, period, and birth cohort factors on blood donation rate and to predict the age‐specific blood donation rates from 2021 to 2035.ResultsThe APC model was highly reproducible for blood donation rates (modifiedR2= 0.99). The blood donation rate in 2020 was 6.0% (5.04 million), an increase compared to 2019. Comparing this study with the BD research group, the predicted blood donation rates in 2025 for those 16–19 years old and in 20s are lower (4.8% vs. 5.2% and 5.3% vs. 5.5%) but those among 50s and 60s are higher (7.9% vs. 7.5% and 4.2% vs. 3.9%, respectively).DiscussionThe number of blood donations in 2020 increased despite COVID‐19 and it proved that the blood donation promotion was effective. The different age‐specific blood donation rates between our study and the report of BD research group infers the effect of COVID‐19 on blood donation were differed by age and suggested the need for different approaches to blood donation promotion by generation.