Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict
Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343311431288
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Gleditsch, Nils Petter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gleditsch, Nils Petter
直到最近，大多数关于气候变化与安全之间关系的著作都是高度推测性的。迄今为止，气专委的评估报告在这一问题上几乎没有提供任何指导，偶尔对可疑来源给予过度关注。在这份特刊上发表的文章是迄今为止关于这一主题的最大的同行评议著作集。与构成气候问题的自然科学基础的研究相比，此类研究的数量仍然很少，并且正在测试的是“气候”还是“天气”的影响也存在一些困惑。研究的结果各不相同，并不总是能得出确切的结论。尽管如此，这方面的研究已经取得了相当大的进展。人们更加关注将气候变化与冲突联系起来的具体因果机制，如降雨量和温度的变化、自然灾害和经济增长。大多数文章使用了系统的气候数据，有些文章使用了气候预测。有几项研究超越了基于国家的冲突，探讨了对其他类型暴力的可能影响，如社区间冲突。总的来说，这里报告的研究仅为将气候变化视为对武装冲突的重要影响提供了有限的支持。然而，将气候问题视为安全问题可能会影响行为者的看法，并促成自我实现的预言。
Until recently, most writings on the relationship between climate change and security were highly speculative. The IPCC assessment reports to date offer little if any guidance on this issue and occasionally pay excessive attention to questionable sources. The articles published in this special issue form the largest collection of peer-reviewed writings on the topic to date. The number of such studies remains small compared to those that make up the natural science base of the climate issue, and there is some confusion whether it is the effect of 'climate' or 'weather' that is being tested. The results of the studies vary, and firm conclusions cannot always be drawn. Nevertheless, research in this area has made considerable progress. More attention is being paid to the specific causal mechanisms linking climate change to conflict, such as changes in rainfall and temperature, natural disasters, and economic growth. Systematic climate data are used in most of the articles and climate projections in some. Several studies are going beyond state-based conflict to look at possible implications for other kinds of violence, such as intercommunal conflict. Overall, the research reported here offers only limited support for viewing climate change as an important influence on armed conflict. However, framing the climate issue as a security problem could possibly influence the perceptions of the actors and contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy.