Understanding teenage fertility in Peru: An analysis using longitudinal data
Understanding teenage fertility in Peru: An analysis using longitudinal data
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了解秘鲁青少年生育率：使用纵向数据进行分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alan Sánchez
中科院分区：
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作者：
M. Favara;P. Lavado;Alan Sánchez
降低少女怀孕率仍然是秘鲁公共政策的一个难以实现的目标。我们使用来自秘鲁的“年轻生命研究”的纵向数据，调查了一系列可能是青少年生育风险因素的早期环境和生活变化--样本中大约五分之一的女孩是青少年母亲。纵向数据的使用使我们能够减少这类分析中常见的方法问题。根据我们的研究结果，在贫困家庭中长大，在单亲家庭中长大，15岁或之前离开学校，12岁时在学校表现不佳，16岁或以下发生第一次性关系是早育的关键风险因素。从随时间变化的角度来看，我们揭示了在生育之前发生的儿童和家庭特征变化的重要性。在其他因素中，我们发现青春期自我效能和教育愿望的改善与早育概率的降低有关。确定的风险因素对女孩的相关性要大得多，在大多数情况下，只是相关性。从政策的角度来看，我们的研究结果表明，旨在提高入学率，性教育，青少年的社会情感能力的举措可能是有效的工具，以减少高利率的少女怀孕秘鲁。
Reducing the prevalence of teenage pregnancy remains an elusive goal for public policy in Peru. We use longitudinal data from the Young Lives Study in Peru to investigate on an extensive set of early circumstances and life changes that might be the risk factors for teenage childbearing—about one out of five girls in the sample was a teenage mother. The use of longitudinal data allows us to reduce the methodological concerns common to this type of analysis. According to our results, growing up in a poor household, being raised in a single‐parent household, leaving school at or before age 15, performing badly in school at age 12, and having the first sexual relation at or under age 16 are the key risk factors for early childbearing. From a time‐varying perspective, we uncover the importance of changes in the characteristics of a child and household that occurred prior to childbearing. Among other factors, we find that improvements in self‐efficacy and education aspirations during adolescence are associated with a decrease in the probability of early childbearing. Risk factors identified are considerably more relevant—in most cases, only relevant—for girls. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that initiatives aimed at improving school attendance, sexual education, and socioemotional competencies among adolescents might be effective tools to reduce the high rates of teenage pregnancy in Peru.